cxc
401 posts
Mar 16, 2026
2:08 AM
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MO HINH MARKOV BAC CAO (HIGHER-ORDER MARKOV CHAINS) TRONG DU BAO TAI NOHUWIN
Cac mo hinh Markov bac 1 (chi phu thuoc vao van truoc) thuong qua don gian cho su phuc tap cua https://nohuwin.biz/. De co loi the, can ap dung Markov bac cao.
1. Ban chat cua Markov bac cao
Mot chuoi Markov bac $k$ xac dinh trang thai cua van cuoc hien tai dua tren $k$ van truoc do. Tai Nohuwin, neu ta xet $k=3$, xac suat cua van tiep theo se la $P(S_n | S_{n-1}, S_{n-2}, S_{n-3})$. Dieu nay tao ra mot ma tran chuyen doi da chieu voi do chinh xac cao hon rat nhieu so voi du bao don le.
2. Xay dung ma tran chuyen doi (Transition Matrix)
Bot cua ban can mot cau truc du lieu de luu tru cac bo 3 van bai (tong cong co $2^3 = 8$ trang thai neu xet Tai/Xiu).
Vi du: Neu chuoi qua khu la "Tai-Xiu-Tai", xac suat van sau ra "Tai" la bao nhieu?
Bot se thuc hien dem tan suat xuat hien va chia cho tong so lan xuat hien cua chuoi "Tai-Xiu-Tai" trong lich su sanh cuoc. Day la cach lam dua tren du lieu thuc te (Empirical Data).
3. Uu diem va gioi han
Uu diem cua Markov bac cao la no bat duoc cac "nhip cau" lap di lap lai cua thuat toan Nohuwin. Tuy nhien, khi $k$ qua lon (vi du $k=10$), du lieu se bi "loang" (sparse data) vi hiem khi chuoi do lap lai du nhieu de tinh xac suat. Vi vay, $k=3$ hoac $k=4$ la diem ngot (sweet spot) cho cac Bot giao dich tu dong.
Phone : 0938475621
DIA CHI : 128 Duong so 7, Phuong Binh Tri Dong B, Quan Binh Tan, Ho Chi Minh, Viet Nam
Hashtags : #nohuwinbiz #nohuwincasino #casinonohuwin #GameDoiThuong
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